Hopes for new tool to improve early diagnosis of meningitis

23 September 2010

Public health experts working at the Health Protection Agency (HPA) have developed a model to assess if suspected meningitis is bacterial or viral in origin.

The predictive model was developed using data collected from HPA surveillance systems and clinicians, and features a simple set of criteria that can be used alongside current tests.

Diagnosis of bacterial or viral meningitis currently depends upon analysis of spinal fluid obtained via a lumbar puncture but this procedure can be difficult to carry out and the results in some patients may be hard to interpret.

The HPA study team examined the clinical symptoms, biochemistry and microbiology of 385 confirmed cases of meningitis over a 12-month period. Three factors based on routine clinical assessment and early available laboratory test results were identified that help differentiate between bacterial and viral meningitis. The presence or not of these factors were then 'scored' and a total obtained.

Dr Toyin Ejidokun, a HPA Consultant in Communicable Disease who led the study team, explained:

"The total score allows a treating clinician to simply and quickly assess the likelihood of whether or not the case is bacterial meningitis by checking it against the predictive probabilities we have developed following our study of 385 confirmed cases.

"While further testing needs to take place to test the accuracy of the model, this simple model offers the prospect of a rapid predictive tool to help clinical and public health management of suspected bacterial meningitis cases."

Dr Ejidokun added:

"Meningitis is a potentially life threatening disease in children and young people and some survivors go on to develop lifelong complications. Therefore prompt diagnosis, and early intervention, is crucial in protecting those with suspected meningitis and their close contacts."